How much is my Rolex worth? A step-by-step valuation

You have a Rolex in a drawer, or on your wrist, and you want a number you can trust before you talk to anyone who might buy it. This guide walks you through the same steps a careful dealer takes, in the order they matter, and ends with a worksheet you can fill in for your own watch.

This is the step-by-step guide. If you only want the number, our Rolex watch value tool does the calculation for your reference, condition and set, with the measured adjustments shown.

One thing first: WristPrices is an independent price guide. We don't buy watches, authenticate them or appraise them. What we do is collect sold prices, 108,034 of them so far, and turn them into a range per reference. That range is the starting point. Your watch's details move you up or down inside it.

Step 1: Find the exact reference number

Everything starts with the reference, because two watches that look alike can sell far apart. A Submariner Date 126610LN and a Submariner Date 16610 are both black-dial steel divers, but one has a ceramic bezel and a newer movement and the other was made from 1988 to 2010. Their sold prices are not interchangeable.

Where to look:

• Your papers. The warranty card or original paperwork usually lists both the reference and the serial number.
• The case. The reference is engraved between the lugs on the 12 o'clock side. You need the bracelet off to read it, which is a job for a watchmaker if you're not comfortable with spring bars.
• The rehaut. On watches from the mid-2000s on, the serial is engraved on the inner ring under the crystal, at 6 o'clock. That's the serial, not the reference, so don't mix them up.

If you're unsure, our guide on how to find your Rolex reference number explains the digits and letters, and the full Rolex reference list lets you match photos and specs.

Step 2: Grade the condition honestly

Buyers price condition in a few broad bands. Be the strictest grader in the room, because the person making an offer will be.

Two things count against you more than surface scratches: a case that has been polished so much its edges have gone soft, and parts that are not original to the watch. We cover both in does polishing a Rolex reduce value and in does servicing affect Rolex value.

In our data, unworn full sets sold about 5% above worn full sets of the same reference, measured across our sold results. That's the size of the premium for a watch that has never been worn, and it's one reason "like new" is not the same as unworn.

Step 3: Count what came in the box

"Box and papers" means the original box and the warranty card or certificate that came with the watch. Buyers pay more for a full set because it supports the watch's history and makes it easier to sell again.

We measured this from our own sales rather than guessing. On eBay, watches sold without box or papers went for about 13% less than full sets of the same reference. Watches sold with only the box or only the papers sold at about the same level as full sets on eBay. At auction the watch-only gap was smaller. The details are in our box and papers guide.

So if you have the card but lost the box, you're in a better spot than you might think. If you have nothing, expect the watch-only figure.

Step 4: Use sold prices, never asking prices

Asking prices tell you what sellers hope for. Sold prices tell you what buyers paid. Our ranges use sold results only: eBay sales (87,061 sold listings on file) and auction results (20,973 results on file). Asking prices never feed a number, and forum posts marked sold are shown separately but left out of the range.

Each reference page shows:

• the headline range, which describes a pre-owned watch with box and papers in a private sale
• a watch-only range, where we have enough sales to measure it
• the eBay and auction medians over the last 12 months
• every recent sold result, with its date, condition and source

Here are some widely searched references as a reference point:

For example, the Rolex Submariner Date 126610LN has a range of $10,800–$17,900, based on 1,017 sold results, and its watch-only range is about $9,550–$15,900. Browse the Submariner collection for its siblings, or the pre-owned Rolex price guide for every reference with a published range.

Step 5: Read the confidence and volatility labels

A range is only as good as the sales behind it. Every published range carries two labels.

Confidence tells you how often later sales landed inside ranges like it in our walk-forward test:

1. High: at least 9 in 10 later sales fell inside.
2. Moderate: at least 8 in 10.
3. Low: at least 2 in 3.

Volatility tells you how spread out the last 90 days of sales were: Stable, Moving or Volatile. A Stable reference sells in a tight band, so your watch's condition and set explain most of the difference. A Volatile reference has wider swings, so one recent sale tells you less.

The 126610LN, for instance, is at high confidence with a volatility label of Stable. Its change over the last year: +5.0% over 12 months.

Mistakes that skew a valuation

Most owners who end up disappointed by an offer made one of these errors on the way in:

• Using the retail price as the anchor. Retail is the list price of a new watch, and only references still in production have one. A pre-owned watch sells at whatever buyers pay for that reference, which can sit on either side of retail.
• Matching on looks instead of the reference. A watch "like" yours with a different reference number is a different data set. Dial variants and bracelet options can matter too.
• Taking the best sale you can find. One record result is not your price. Use the range, and the median of recent sales, not the outlier.
• Ignoring the date of the sales. Our ranges weight recent sales more heavily, because a sale from two years ago says less about today than one from last month.
• Forgetting the costs of selling. Fees, commissions, insured shipping and the time you spend all come out of the gap between the range and what you actually keep.

The valuation worksheet

Fill this in for your watch. It takes ten minutes and gives you a defensible number before any conversation.

Start at the headline range for your reference. Move to the watch-only range if you have no box or papers. Then place your watch inside the range by condition: excellent toward the middle, good lower, fair below.

From what it's worth to what you'll be paid

The number from this worksheet is a market value for a private sale. What lands in your bank account depends on how you sell:

• Private sale: closest to the range, but you handle buyers, payment and risk.
• Dealer: usually below the range, because the dealer carries the cost of resale and the risk. You get paid fast.
• Auction: prices include the buyer's premium, and the seller pays a commission, so your net is below the hammer-plus-premium figure.
• eBay: the sale price is public, but seller fees come off the top.

We compare these in detail in where to sell a Rolex. If speed and simplicity matter more than the last bit of price, our sell my Rolex page lets you check your range and request offers. A person reviews each request, and when an independent dealer is a fit, we introduce them so they can make you an offer. You decide whether to sell.