Rolex watch value: how to value a Rolex
A Rolex is worth what the same reference, in the same condition and set, has recently sold for. Pick yours below to see that range from recorded sales. We publish ranges for 460 of the 793 references we track, and say so plainly when there are too few sales.
This page is the tool. For the reasoning behind each step, from finding the reference number to judging condition, read our guide how much is my Rolex worth.
How we value a Rolex
- We collect sold results for each reference from the last 24 months: eBay sold listings and auction results. Asking prices never count.
- Each sale is converted to the same baseline, a pre-owned watch with box and papers, using ratios measured from our own sales (below), so a watch-only or unworn sale still informs the figure.
- Newer sales weigh more: a sale's weight halves every 30 days for references with 100 or more sales a year, and every 180 days for the rest.
- The weighted middle is the worth-about figure; the range around it is widened until it matched how often later sales really fell inside it in our backtest.
- Each range carries a confidence level and, with at least 6 sales in the last 90 days, a volatility label: below 10% typical spread is stable, above 20% volatile.
The inputs that matter
Reference number
The reference sets the starting point, because every range on this site is per reference. Find it on the papers or between the lugs, or look it up by nickname in our Rolex nicknames list.
Condition
Unworn watches sold for about 5% more than worn ones of the same reference and set (2132 unworn sales). Among worn watches, ranges by condition appear on a reference page once each has enough sales.
Box and papers
Original box and papers (warranty card or certificate) are the baseline for every figure on this site. A service card or a replacement box does not count as original papers.
Service history
We apply no adjustment for service history, because listings rarely state it in a comparable way. Keep the paperwork: buyers and dealers ask for it.
Measured adjustments
Each figure compares a sale with other sales of the same reference within 90 days, so it isolates the set or condition. Measured on our data through 2026-10-26.
| Channel | What came with the watch | Against a full set | Sales measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| eBay sold | Box and papers (the baseline) | Baseline | 15967 |
| eBay sold | Box or papers, not both | about the same | 6973 |
| eBay sold | Watch only | -13% | 531 |
| eBay sold | Set not stated in the listing | -4% | 56114 |
| Auction sold | Box and papers (the baseline) | +5% | 1783 |
| Auction sold | Box or papers, not both | +2% | 716 |
| Auction sold | Watch only | -4% | 614 |
| Auction sold | Set not stated in the listing | +3% | 1767 |
| Both | Unworn, full set, against a worn full set | +5% | 2132 |
Auction rows are measured against auction full sets of the same reference and keep their own price level; collection-level ratios are shrunk toward these site-wide figures when a collection has few sales.
Worked examples
In each collection we publish a price guide for, the reference with the most sales behind its range (among those with watch-only and unworn figures), valued three ways from its own sales:
| Reference | Box and papers | Watch only (about) | Unworn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Submariner Date 166101112 sold results | $6,850–$11,400 | $6,050–$10,100 | $10,100–$13,800 |
| Cosmograph Daytona 116500LN298 sold results | $22,300–$37,100 | $19,200–$32,100 | $24,500–$33,200 |
| GMT-Master II “Batgirl” 126710BLNR510 sold results | $13,800–$23,000 | $12,300–$20,600 | $15,700–$21,300 |
| Datejust 41 1263001603 sold results | $7,800–$13,000 | $6,750–$11,200 | $9,600–$13,000 |
| Oyster Perpetual 41 124300612 sold results | $6,550–$10,900 | $5,600–$9,300 | $7,350–$9,950 |
How far to trust a valuation
We test every range against sales that came later. Over the past year: 91% of 25632 later sales fell inside high-confidence ranges; 83% of 8673 later sales fell inside moderate-confidence ranges; 72% of 464 later sales fell inside low-confidence ranges. A single watch can still sell outside its range, especially in unusual condition.
Selling after you value it?
If you decide to sell, sell your Rolex watch through our request-offers page: a person reviews every request, and your details go to a dealer only if you agree. WristPrices does not buy watches.
Frequently asked questions
How do I find out what my Rolex is worth?
Find the reference number (on the papers, or between the lugs), then pick it in the tool on this page with the condition and whether you have the box and papers. Where we have enough recorded sales you see the typical range for watches like yours. We publish ranges for 460 of the 793 Rolex references we track.
Does a Rolex lose value without box and papers?
On our eBay sold results, watches sold without box and papers went for about 13% less than full sets of the same reference, across 531 watch-only sales. The figure is measured per collection where there are enough sales.
Is an unworn Rolex worth more?
Yes, on our data: unworn full sets sold for about 5% more than worn ones of the same reference, across 2132 unworn sales.
Does a service history change a Rolex's value?
We don't measure it yet: listings rarely state service history in a way we can compare, so no adjustment is applied. Keep service papers with the watch, because buyers and dealers ask for them.
Is the valuation an offer?
No. It is the typical range from recorded sales of the same reference, condition and set. An offer depends on the watch itself, which a buyer checks before paying. WristPrices is an independent price guide and does not buy watches.
Examples link to their reference pages, such as the Submariner Date 16610 price page, where each figure's sales are listed.