Are Rolex prices going down? What our sold results show

"Are Rolex prices going down?" has two honest answers, and which one you get depends on the starting point. Measured over the last twelve months, 344 of the 402 published references with a twelve-month figure rose and 56 fell. Measured against a reference's own highest point, which for many modern references came in the 2021 to 2022 boom, the answer can be different.

This post shows both views with our own sold results, so you can see which one applies to the watch you own or want. It describes what the data shows. It is not financial advice.

Where the numbers come from

We hold 108,034 sold results across 793 catalog references: 87,061 from eBay sold listings and 20,973 from auction houses. Asking prices never count. For long-run history we also hold 44,070 forum posts marked sold, going back to 2006. Those are the listed price when the post was marked sold, not confirmed sale prices, and they never feed our current price ranges; we use them only to show how far back a reference's history goes.

A reference gets a published range only once it has enough recent sales. Today 460 do. The full rules are on our methodology page.

View one: the last twelve months

Each published reference with enough sales has a year-over-year figure: the median sold price over the last twelve months against the median of the twelve months before, each window with at least three sales.

In the export behind this post, the median change across those references is +9.6%. Here is where five widely searched steel references stand:

For outside context, Time+Tide's summary of the February 2026 Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts report said secondary prices across the market fell in 2023 and 2024 and recovered in 2025, with Rolex among the brands still trading above retail.

View two: since the 2022 peak

Our forum archive and auction records let us look much further back. The Highest point column below shows the month or quarter where each reference peaked in our records. Fortune's April 2024 coverage of the Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index described the most coveted pre-owned watches reaching unprecedented levels in 2021 and early 2022, then falling sharply.

Here is what that looks like for current and recent steel references. Long-run figures come from the earliest series with enough sales for each reference. Each figure names its series, and forum figures are listed prices when marked sold.

Read the columns together. Where a record starts close to the boom, as it does for recent models such as the Explorer 124270, the change since the first year compares today with boom-era prices, so it can be negative even when the last twelve months were positive. Where the highest point sits in 2021 or 2022, today's figure is being measured against the top of that run.

The 116500LN Daytona shows why the starting year matters. Its record starts in 2016, a different base from the newer models above, so its long-run change answers a different question from theirs.

So whether "prices went down" is true depends on the comparison: against a reference's own peak, against its first year in our records, or against last year.

Where prices did fall over the past year

In this export, 56 of the 402 references with a twelve-month figure are lower than a year ago. The five below had a fall when we wrote this post; check the current figure in each row. Falls need a careful read in three kinds of reference: models launched recently, precious-metal references with fewer buyers, and pieces with few sales, where a handful of results can move the median.

Two cautions. First, the Land-Dweller was launched in 2025, so its earlier window holds only sales from its first months on the market; a change from launch-period prices is a different thing from a change in an established reference. Second, our data shows the move, not the reason. We don't attribute any of these falls to a cause we can't source.

Older references: a longer cushion

References that were already on the market years before the boom are measured from an earlier, pre-boom base. For each one below, compare the long-run change with its highest point and its last twelve months.

• Rolex Submariner Date 16610: history from 2008, long-run change up 124% on 2008 (median listed price of forum posts marked sold), highest point $11,000 in April 2022 (highest monthly median listed price of forum posts marked sold, 7 posts). Over the past year: +6.7% over 12 months.
• Rolex GMT-Master II 16710: history from 2008, long-run change up 225% on 2008 (median listed price of forum posts marked sold), highest point $16,000 in March 2022 (highest monthly median listed price of forum posts marked sold, 5 posts). Over the past year: +6.6% over 12 months.
• Rolex Submariner 14060M: history from 2008, long-run change up 194% on 2008 (median listed price of forum posts marked sold), highest point $11,400 in Q1 2022 (highest quarterly median listed price of forum posts marked sold, 11 posts). Over the past year: +6.7% over 12 months.

Where these figures name the forum series, they are listed prices when marked sold, so treat the early years as a guide to the level, not exact sale prices. The older the starting point, the smaller the share of the record the boom years take up.

How to tell if your watch is going down

A market headline won't tell you what your watch will fetch. Work through it reference by reference.

• Find your exact reference. A Submariner Date and a no-date Submariner are different markets. Start from the Submariner collection page or our pre-owned Rolex guide.
• Read the twelve-month change. It compares two medians of real sales. A small move is mostly noise from the mix of conditions in each window.
• Check the volatility label. Stable means recent sales sit close together; Volatile means they are spread out, so any single price is less informative.
• Look at the long-range chart. If the peak is in 2022 and the current median is below it, you are looking at a reference that has come off its high, whatever the last year did.
• Check the confidence level. High confidence means at least nine in ten later sales landed inside ranges like it in our backtest. Low confidence means treat the range as a rough guide.

What would change this picture

The year-over-year view updates with every data export, so a change in direction would show up there first, as more references with falls. The long-run view moves slowly, because it compares against many years of history.

Both views are updated as new sales arrive, in our Rolex price index and on every reference page. If you own a watch and want to see where it stands now, start with its reference page, then compare offers on our sell page.

The answer, in one line

Over the last year, 344 references in our sold data rose and 56 fell, a median change of +9.6%; against each reference's own peak, the picture can differ. Which one matters depends on when you bought and what you own.